Imagine England in the year 2020. Your holiday plans are in tatters. Continental trips and second homes are a thing of the past and you can’t afford Scotland: its euro currency is way too expensive and the visa queues at its London embassy are crazy. You sigh and resign yourself to another day at the President Trump theme park on the Stevenage ring road.
OK, things probably won’t get that bad, but the future of tourism and travel in a UK outside the EU will be hotly debated in the months leading up to June’s referendum. The Out campaign is keen to play down any notion that Brexit will have serious consequences, but many travel experts are worried.
Noel Josephides, chairman of Sunvil, does not mince his words: “It would be a disaster. At a time when we have lots of instability, this would add to it. There would be questions over reciprocal health arrangements so insurance costs would almost certainly rise. Freedom of the skies would be in jeopardy; there’d be VAT and taxation complications; consumer protection could fall behind that of Europe; and the status of our UK reps working in the EU could change. Holidays would get more expensive. I’m actually very worried by the prospect.”
He’s not the only one. Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary is typically forthright: “We are absolutely clear that growth prospects are stronger as a member of the European Union.” A decision to leave will, he says, mean “pay and obey like Norway” – ie it pays into the EU but have no say in legislation.
Other industry leaders have jumped into the debate too. Monarch’s Andrew Swaffield and Tui’s Fritz Joussen have spoken out against a British exit, as has Richard Branson. Frank Brehany of consumer group HolidayTravelWatch says: “The EU brings many consumer rights – benefits that I fear will be lost.”
Not everyone is so quick to predict doom, however. Joel Brandon-Bravo of travel deal website Travelzoo says: “We don’t believe travel patterns would alter that much in the months following Brexit. We doubt EU nations would add visa restrictions or significant costs.”
This is echoed by John Fletcher, professor of economics specialising in tourism at Bournemouth University: “Travel will probably continue to be relatively hassle-free. British spenders in Europe are significant, and the EU won’t want to jeopardise that. I don’t think there’ll be much impact overall.”
Even here, however, there are caveats. Brandon-Bravo cites currency concerns. “We might see the pound and euro suffer against non-European currencies, so travel outside the EU might become more expensive.” And Fletcher points to longer-term problems. “EU funding and support for the regions will change, and so, too, will investment by large hotel chains.”
The overall view at the moment appears to be that costs could rise. A report from trade body Abta, due on 15 March, is widely expected to go into detail about the consequences of an exit vote. As for the likelihood of passport checks at Berwick-upon-Tweed: well, how else to keep the immigrants out? The question is, in which direction will they be travelling?
