The slump in tourism from overseas to the UK will not be halted until 2003, according to new estimates from a study by the Centre for Economics and Business Research. However, while numbers are expected to fall by 10% this year, the drop should be contained to 3% in 2002. The study also concluded that the number of UK residents travelling abroad will dip by 1.5% next year.

The research was commissioned by the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA) and was released today at the start of their annual convention in Lisbon. Despite the discouraging figures, the delegates were determinedly upbeat.

"It's not all doom and gloom," said ABTA's chief executive, Ian Reynolds. "I think the UK will benefit from changing travel patterns, with more people wanting to take a holiday at home. But clearly we have yet to see a real recovery in travel to the US and Middle East - hopefully this will come later."

The Centre's chief executive, Douglas McWilliams, suggested that although the downturn in tourism after the Gulf War of 1991 could act as a useful comparison, the effects of the war on terrorism will be more severe and long-lasting. His report said that although UK citizens were on the whole less fearful of terrorist attacks, estimates were that there would be reduction in business travel and long-haul leisure travel to the US, the Middle East and Asia.

Non-business bookings were likely to recover sharply in early 2002, although not by enough to bring the number of visitors from the UK for 2002 up to 2001 levels, since the growth in travel from the UK would have been hit anyway by the economic downturn in the period between 2000 and 2005. Growth in leisure travel between 1995 and 2000 was 37.8%; before September 11 the projected growth for the period 2000 to 2005 was 23%, it has now fallen to around 15.8%.

Looking further ahead, leisure travel from the UK is expected to grow by 32.5% between 2005 and 2010.