It's the season of tinsel, turkey, mistletoe and newspaper lists. Over the next fortnight, lists of the best books, worst films, top sporting moments and fashion fads of the year will jostle for space alongside lists of predictions for what's going to be 'hot' in 2003. When it comes to travel, these lists always make me feel a bit uneasy. Because, unlike that cheeky off-the-shoulder peasant smock you bought this summer, which you are now using to polish the car, or the latest Pop Idol CD, which can simply be taken off the shelves when the next pop confection comes along, tourism destinations continue to exist after they go out of fashion.
One of the most frequent questions to appear on our letters page is 'Where is the new Prague?' Well, the last time I looked, the old Prague was still where it always was, and very lovely too.
And while a fashion-conscious minority might be swayed by learning that 'Algeria is the new Morocco' the majority of us will choose our holidays on the criteria by which we have always chosen them, whether that be price, guaranteed sunshine, a personal fascination, familiarity, quality of accommodation or a combination of all these.
Another reason these lists make me feel uneasy is that it's impossible to predict anything with any certainty at the moment. I feel quite sorry for the tour operators whose job it is to book allocations of airline seats and hotel rooms a year ahead. Bali and Prague both had every reason to look forward to a bumper year for tourism at the start of 2002. How can anyone say who will be travelling anywhere, when all it takes is a freak flood or random terrorist act to wipe a city, island or, indeed, a whole continent off the tourism map? The one trend you can predict with any certainty is that, with the threat of another Gulf war hanging over us, people will leave it to the last minute to book their holidays.
It's interesting to note that the destinations that are tipped to be 'hot' next year - namely Croatia, Sri Lanka and Cambodia - were all war zones themselves until recently. Which gives some indication of the fickle nature of the tourism industry: this year's no-go area is next year's travel mag front cover.
In reality, there are only so many 'new' places left to discover and, just as the Pop Idol wannabes sing recycled hits from the Sixties and Seventies, so tour operators that claim to be 'opening up' new destinations are just going over old ground. So Essaouira was the 'hot new' destination of the year, which might come as news to the hippies who beat a path to the Moroccan coastal town 30 years ago.
When people ask for the 'new Prague', we all know what they are looking for. They want somewhere with the same Bohemian atmosphere and architectural charm but without the tourists. After flooding which damaged the old town this summer, most tourists have deserted the city. By that definition, I think it's fair to say Prague is the new Prague.
