I like my Valentine's Day to go with a bang but this was ridiculous. About to fly out for a romantic weekend at the Dead Sea in Jordan, travel paranoia was reaching fever pitch at Heathrow Terminal 4: our departure was under threat of terrorist missile attack, army tanks had us surrounded and a Venezuelan man had just landed at Gatwick with a live grenade nestled amongst his smalls. Don't say I don't know how to show a girl a good time.
Undeterred, however, we got on the plane and flew off into the sun without incident. But we're not typical. I have friends - normal, rational people with mortgages and books on their coffee tables - who won't even take the Eurostar for fear of being implicated in the fallout from the imminent war with Iraq.
While our leaders obsess over Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, jitters amongst the travelling public are endemic. Result? Large numbers of people who would currently be planning a spring break or a summer holiday are, quite simply, staying home. This has particularly hit popular family resorts; Cyprus, for example, is for many just too close to the Middle East and has seen a significant fall in bookings. The younger, perhaps more foolhardy, travel market nevertheless remains relatively untouched.
"I suspect domestic tourism is performing best at the moment while the mainstream tour operators are hardest hit as their clients are the most susceptible to travel anxiety," says Damian Perry, general manager of long-haul and responsible tourism specialists, Intrepid Travel.
"I believe levels of nervousness will increase as more troops arrive in the Gulf but, so far, our bookings are solid. Our clients tend to be more resilient so," he adds, "I can count on one hand the number of people calling us concerned about the affect of war on their bookings."
Last week, the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) updated its travel advice to warn British nationals against "all non-essential travel to Kuwait"; to "leave Iraq immediately, given the increasing risk of terrorist action"; and to leave the West Bank and Gaza in the Israeli occupied territories "while exit routes remain open".
The US State Department goes one further, advising citizens to "carefully consider the increased risks of travel" to Jordan; to "defer all travel" to Indonesia; and to exercise caution across the United Arab Emirates.
In reality, however, many Arab destinations are enjoying business as usual. Dubai-based Emirates airlines recently announced they are to add a third daily service to Dubai from London Gatwick, plus a second daily service from Manchester from June 1st - that's in addition to their existing seven daily departures. In the event of war flights into Dubai would simply deviate around no-fly zones according to international air traffic control instructions.
Dubai, 1,000 miles or two hours flying time from Baghdad, remains unaffected by mounting tension in the Gulf. The Dubai Tennis Open, featuring Tim Henman and Monica Seles, is currently going ahead as usual, Tiger Woods will be attending the Dubai Desert Classic from March 6 to 9 and the Dubai World Cup, the world's richest horse race, takes place on March 29. Hotels are nearly booked out for all events.
In Libya, meanwhile, home to maverick Arab leader Colonel Gadafy, the Malta-based Corinthia Hotel chain will be opening a 300-room five-star property in the capital, Tripoli, in early April. Strange time to be opening an international standard hotel?
"Well, yes," says Geoff Andrew, group director of sales and marketing for Corinithia Hotels International, "but we're optimistic we have a broad local market with European ex-pat business interests in the city. Business travellers like them are not typically put off by the world situation."
Given the unease the pre-war period fosters, certain travel industry players are, some may suggest, either cynical or savvy enough to turn the situation to their advantage with their marketing men scrambling their own crack troops to court anxious travellers. Scandinavia is one such prime mover.
"In my opinion, the Scandinavian countries don't sell themselves hard enough as safe haven destinations. During the last Gulf war we saw a big push towards the northern Europe and, so far, our bookings are already up 32% year-on-year," says Lawrence Hicks, Head of Business Development at tour operator Scandinavia Freestyle.
The Danish Tourist Board, may not actively be marketing Denmark as a "safe" destination, but airline seats are nearly sold out from both the UK and Ireland, and hotel bed nights in Copenhagen up 16%, according to latest figures. Instinctively, it seems, consumers are looking to areas away from politically sensitive zones in Mediterranean Europe.
"We're launching a specific campaign to foster the consumer's perception of Scandinavia as a safe destination," adds Hicks. "I don't see anything wrong with sticking our heads above the parapet and saying that we're still here, and we're safe."
Closer to home, the British Tourist Authority (BTA) are active in the Tourist Industry Emergency Response (Tear) group, which was set up in the aftermath of September 11 to respond the affects of the global events on inbound British tourism. Other members include British Airways, ABTA and national tourist boards. Overseas visitors to the UK increased by 6% during 2002 to 24.2 million visits.
"Anecdotal evidence suggests that there is some nervousness but we haven't seen significant cancellation levels from overseas as yet," says BTA spokesman Elliott Frisby. "The build up to war has been so long that people are almost growing used to it - hence adapting a wait-and-see attitude."
Overall, short-haul and domestic travel are likely to boom following the outbreak of war but, unlike the notoriously nervous Americans and Japanese who will avoid all long-haul travel, British travellers traditionally return to normal travelling routines within a few months of the conclusion of conflict. Furthermore, recent incidents in Southeast Asia - riots in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, and a shooting near Vang Vien in Loas, which left two French nationals dead - are being recognised by British travellers for what they were: isolated incidents unconnected to current global events.
As the FCO points out, terrorist attacks against tourist are rare. You are still more likely to come to harm in a diving accident or skiing in France - nearly half of all ski injuries across six popular destinations during the 1999/2000 season occurred on French slopes.
The message from the industry is to take the usual precautions overseas but carry on travelling. "As a company we have had a 'war summit' to decide our policy and will respond with measure on a case-by-case basis, following Foreign Office advice," says Perry of Intrepid Travel. "If clients are concerned, then we favour transferring them to later tours without loss of funds, but we're unlikely to start cancelling trips."
"Besides," he adds, "then the terrorists have won."
Contact details
Foreign and Commonwealth Office travel advice, 0870 606 0290
Intrepid Travel, 0870 903 1040
Scandinavia Freestyle, 020 8846 2666
Danish Tourist Board, 020 7259 5958
Emirates, 0870 243 2222
Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing, 020 7747 2150
Corinthia Hotels, 020 8943 4194
British Tourist Authority, 020 8563 3035
· David Atkinson is a freelance travel writer and member of the British Guild of Travel Writers
